e-limbo, e-zine de informacion y analasis de modos de vida actual
19.03.2018 / Sesión no Iniciada 

 _enviar articulo

e-mail emisor
e-mail receptor
Ayúdanos a evitar contactos automáticos
Anti Spam

En estos tiempos de hipercomunicación bastaría la invitación de enviar a un amigo cualquiera de los textos que consideres interesantes algo redundante: demasiada comunicación, demasiados textos y , en general, demasiado de todo.
Es posible que estemos de acuerdo... pero cuando encuentras algo interesante en cualquier sitio, la red, la calle, tu casa, o un lugar escondido y remoto, compartirlo no sólo es un acto (acción, hecho) de amistad o altruismo, también es una manera de ahorrar tiempo a los demás (y de que te lo ahorren a ti (si eres afortunado) a costa del tiempo que tu has podido derrochar (emplear) y el gustazo de mostrar que estuviste ahí (o donde fuera ) un poco antes (el tiempo ya no es más el que era).
Comparte con tus conocidos aquello que encuentras, es evolución.
An unfinished war
15-08-06 opendemocracy.net  

Israel's failure in Lebanon will influence United States calculations over a potential attack on Iran.
By Paul Rogers

In the thirty-six hours before the uneasy ceasefire in Lebanon took hold on the morning of 14 August 2006, Israel poured thousands of troops into southern Lebanon and was still conducting air raids across the country two hours before the deadline. Hizbollah, in turn, fired 250 missiles into northern Israel in the final eighteen hours, demonstrating that even these huge Israeli troop movements were not sufficient to force even a temporary halt to the missile threat.

The main reason for the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) action was to enable its troops to systematically search the territory they had occupied in order to find and destroy the numerous underground bunkers, stores and munitions dumps established by Hizbollah. This would severely weaken the organisation, at least in terms of its military capabilities south of the Litani river, giving the Israeli government and the IDF some reason to claim an effective result from the month-long war. It is therefore surprising that reliable sources within the IDF are calling for a rapid withdrawal from southern Lebanon to positions very close to the border.

This withdrawal is, admittedly, planned to take up to ten days and is dependent on Lebanese army units being available. In turn, however, it means "that the IDF will not be conducting searches for Hezbollah fighters or arms caches in the areas that it has captured over the last few days, which the army defined as 'the heart of the operational campaign' against Hezbollah" (see Amos Harel & Aluf Benn, "Tense calm across Lebanon as UN-brokered truce takes effect", Ha'aretz, 14 August 2006).

Israel's belief in the value of an early withdrawal is underpinned by knowledge that Hizbollah remains highly effective; if the ceasefire were to break down with up to 20,000 IDF personnel embedded across much of southern Lebanon, the result would be a situation where the IDF would suffer heavy casualties while Hizbollah would still retain most of its missiles. This is just one more indicator of the problems facing the Olmert government, now that calls for Olmert's resignation are increasing.

More generally, it is indicative of the concern among neo-conservatives and other pro-Israeli groups in Washington that Israel has failed to use the political and military support offered by the United States to decisively defeat Hizbollah (see "The US and Israel: a marriage under pressure" (7 August 2006).

The concern in Washington is mirrored in criticisms in Israel that the Bush administration actively encouraged the Olmert government to take action against Hizbollah. While the United States did not specifically urge Israel to respond to the Hizbollah border raid, this was little more than an incident that set up a pre-planned operation. Moreover, at a key meeting between Bush and Olmert at the White House on 23 May, seven weeks before the start of the war, Bush is reported to have made clear his support for Israeli military action against Hizbollah (see Robert Parry, "Israeli Leaders Fault Bush on War" Consortium News, 13 August 2006).

It now appears, even if some quarters in Israel may dispute it, that the Israeli action against Hizbollah was not far short of a joint operation (see Seymour Hersh, "Watching Lebanon", New Yorker, 14 August 2006). The US air force (Usaf), in particular, is intensely interested in how the Israeli air force handled the issue of targeting the numerous Hezbollah bunkers, some of them buried forty metres or more underground (see "The Lebanon war's pivotal moment" 11 August 2006). It is widely believed that Hizbollah has used Iranian and even North Korean technology and experience in constructing these facilities. Depending on how such an operation went, the Usaf might therefore get highly useful information that it could use in planning operations against Iran.

The Iran factor

The actual experience on the ground makes clear that the original expectation in Washington has backfired in a remarkable way. If Israel had succeeded in its aerial "shock and awe" campaign against Hizbollah, this would in principle have undercut Iran's ability and opportunity to respond to an attack on its nuclear facilities by encouraging action by its Hizbollah surrogate against Israel. The Bush administration would therefore have solved one of its key problems, thus diminishing too Iran's wider prestige across the region.

Instead, the opposite has happened and Israel's failure to disarm Hizbollah is in consequence also a failure of United States policy towards Iran (see "Hit Beirut, target Tehran" 21 July 2006). If the Israeli military, with all its air power, modern equipment and weaponry and direct experience of warfare cannot defeat a guerrilla force of a few thousand in a small country, what is the chance of an Israeli or American attack on Iran avoiding an Iranian-inspired response that makes the continued US occupation of Iraq unsustainable?

The implication is that US or Israeli action against Iran's nuclear facilities becomes much more problematic at precisely the time when Iran's standing in the region has been much improved by the war in Lebanon. Yet Iran still remains the real enemy for the Bush administration, with the need to confront Tehran's nuclear ambitions being as strong as ever.

As a result of the Lebanon war, the recently increased insecurity in Iraq, and the continuing troubles in Afghanistan, there will be those in Washington who will urge immediate action against Iran. From such a perspective, the Israeli failure in Lebanon will result in a steady increase in Iranian influence across the region and a likely acceleration in its nuclear programme.

Any such development remains utterly unacceptable to the Bush administration as well as Israel, so it may be better to contemplate military action against those nuclear facilities now rather than later. Moreover, such action would be a powerful diversion in the run-up to the mid-term elections to Congress in November 2006. The guns of August might yet become the bombs of October.

Paul Rogers is professor of peace studies at Bradford University, northern England. He has been writing a weekly column on global security on openDemocracy since October 2001

Paul Rogers tracks the July 2006 war in a series of daily columns:

"Israel, Lebanon, and beyond: the danger of escalation"
(17 July
"War defeats diplomacy" (18 July 2006)
"A proxy war"
(19 July 2006)
"Israel: losing control" (20 July 2006)
"Hit Beirut, target Tehran" (21 July 2006)
"Lebanon in the wider war" (25 July 2006)
"Lebanon: no quick fix" (26 July 2006)
"A triple front: Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon"
(27 July 2006)
"Lebanon: the world's choice" (28 July 2006)
"After Qana: a false dawn?" (31 July 2006)
"Israel's strategic impasses"
(1 August 2006)
"Lebanon: war takes root" (3 August 2006)
"The US and Israel: a marriage under pressure" (7 August 2006)
"Why Israel is losing" (9 August 2006)
"The Lebanon war's pivotal moment" (11 August 2006)

opendemocracy.net This article originally appeared on openDemocracy.net under a Creative Commons licence. To view the original article, please click here.


Rating: 4 - 1 voto(s).

No existen comentarios.
Comentario / Comment:
  atención: para realizar comentarios tienes que ser usuario registrado.


13-10-12_ Ivan Krastev: ¿Puede existir la democracia sin confianza?
09-10-11_ Habrá violencia, enfrentamientos y conflicto * Toni Negri
25-12-10_ La Zona Prohibida [NoGoZone]
28-03-10_ Historia de un desafuero
07-11-09_ Ginecidio y anticristo (y el devenir femenino del capitalismo identitario)
22-09-09_ Der Baader Meinhof Komplex
21-06-09_ Why do the people desire walls???
14-06-09_ Los enemigos de la SGAE
13-09-09_ Los piratas desembarcan en Venezia
17-09-09_ TEXTO CAPITAL DE LA TEORÍA QUEER. Treinta y siete años después en castellano (!)
01-01-09_ COMMUNE
14-09-08_ SARAH PALIN: Operation "Castration" * Jacques Alain Miller
09-08-08_ El complejo poético-militar
06-07-08_ Necesito matarte, majestad
25-06-08_ La directiva de la VERGÜENZA
25-06-08_ The bank of common knowledge
12-04-08_ Tragic Extremes * Nietzsche and the Politics of Security
23-04-08_ The governance of Spain: between rock and hard place
09-04-08_ Elecciones y políticas culturales
25-03-08_ Tres apuntes sobre política cultural
02-03-08_ ¿Adónde va España?
10-08-08_ La encrucijada. Acción política, arte y comisariado.
20-02-08_ Lessig al Congreso???
24-01-08_ Made in L.A. * Hecho en los Ángeles
02-03-08_ Campaña del corazón
18-01-08_ Las primera batallas para suceder a RAJOY... OY....OY
25-12-07_ Lo cultural es político
16-04-08_ La producción biopolítica.* (Toni Negri y Michael Hardt)
15-06-08_ Malcolm X en Play Boy (1963)
30-08-07_ Shinzo Abe: out of time
01-01-08_ Gary Grant. El estilo como arte marcial
18-09-07_ El fin de la crítica???
01-08-07_Responsibility and neo-liberalism
26-08-07_ ¿Hay alguien que mole?
31-07-07_ Lo que Bush nos enseña cada día
24-07-07_ "Terror doctors": anatomy of a void concept
10-06-08_ Toni Negri * NoWork Festival 2004 (trans)
07-07-07_ Soldado de la Cyber resistencia
13-07-07_ Éxodo a ningún lugar
11-07-07_ La guerra de la informacion
30-06-07_ ¡Oh No Coronado!
26-06-07_ Como darse de baja de la SGAE
06-06-07_ Neutralidad en la red
11-05-07_ El nuevo pensamiento (que viene / que viene!)
08-05-07_Jihad: Idea and History
16-04-07_ ¿Campaña "antiparatería con doble sentido?
12-04-07_ La SGAE quiere ser el SHERIFF de la RED
12-04-07_ A liberal Muslim's letter to the west
27-03-07_  Jurassic Left: the strange death of France's "deuxième gauche"
24-03-07_ Jesus Camp
13-03-07_ Pedro J. censura a elmundo.es
11-03-07_ Conspiradores del futuro
24-02-07_ Major news: FAIR USE and FILM
23-02-07_ El misterio Gordon Thomas
20-02-07_ El Mundo y la verdad
18-02-07_  The new information ecosystem 
11-02-07_ The four faces of World Economic Forum
09-02-07_ El búnker judicial
30-01-07_ ¿Sirve de algo el boicot cultural?
28-01-07_ Revolution or Resistance
23-01-07_ Demagogo e injusto...
22-01-07_ Is another world possible without the women's perspective? 
19-01-07_ Bush TV
18-01-07_ Bush's White Whale
16-01-07_ Pequeños detalles clave
16-01-07_ Contra el fatalismo económico
11-01-07_ El papelito... el papelón...
09-01-07_ Flujos antagonistas * geografías de la multitud
09-01-07_  Is this how humans behave? 
01-01-07_ Aberrante (vídeo íntegro de la ejecución de Sadam)
30-12-06_ El índice de corrupción de los diplomáticos multados.
26-12-06_ La amenaza de la paradoja del control
20-12-06_ Nueva campaña de adoctrinamiento
14-12-06_ Adios al ASESINO
05-12-06_ Information liberation
05-12-06_ Let the IP debate begin.......
27-11-06_  Mahfouz's grave, Arab liberalism's deathbed
18-11-06_ A curse on difference: gays vs zealots in Israel 
13-11-06_ Climate change: the global test 
29-10-07_ TAZ * Chaos
08-11-06_ Un pequeño análisis sobre el éxito de Ciutadans (actualizado 8 _11_06)

01-11-06_Bienal NO, ARTE todos los días
01-11-06_Señores de la SGAE
25-10-06_Information between old and new worlds
22-10-06_T.A.Z.: The Temporary Autonomous Zone (1993)
17-10-06_Getting colder * climate change and America's elections
25-10-06_Orhan Pamuk’s epic journey
08-10-06_Sexo, China y la SGAE
09-10-06_Latin America’s new left: dictators or democrats?
30-09-06_Stanford Prison Experiment
28-09-06_¿Cuál es mi cámara?
24-09-06_Y Dios en el bolsillo de todos
20-09-06_Wired on OpenBusiness and Free Beer
18-09-06_The Free Voice of Labor: The Jewish Anarchists
13-09-06_Gallardón, 'el Artista'
14-03-10_ TAZ * Utopías piratas
08-09-06_L'Monde Diplomatique * Tele-Encuentro Iberoamericano
06-09-06_Trashorras * Un buen chico
30-08-06_Anonymity on the net
20-08-06_Lebanon, Israel and the “greater west Asian crisis”
15-08-06_Carta de Ho Chi Min a Lyndon B. Johnson
15-08-06_An unfinished war
13-08-06_The levels of democracy
11-08-06_France and Lebanon: diplomacy of tragedy
01-08-06_México fragmentado
13-03-07_ En marcha el partido pirata español
20-07-06_Killing a nation, one airstrike at a time
06-07-06_El 'software' libre planta cara a las patentes...
01-07-06_Stopping the Big Giveaway * by John Kerry
30-06-06_Torture teachers
18-06-06_Planet Basel * La madre de todas las batallas
12-06-06_The Vietnam Obsession
09-06-06_Disinformation TV (Things you're not supposed to know)
30-05-06_Por una buena causa
19-05-06_S.O.S. Baronesa
06-06-06_Why Drunks Make Better Politicians
06-06-06_The Hackocracy * Why a MBA president can't manage the government
06-05-06_Entrevista * Catherine David
04-05-06_Interview with José Luis de Vicente
19-04-06_El pequeño Losantos y el Gran Wyoming
13-03-07_ Play Fuckin' Loud: Zizek Versus the Left •
09-04-06_¿La política controla al arte?
09-04-06_Manual de comportamineto...
06-04-06_La Próxima invasión
01-04-06_What Price Art?
01-04-06_ Letter of Resignation...
25-03-06_Political Games: conciencia política online
28-03-06_Los barones del PP buscan esperanza
18-03-06_Starship troopers
14-03-06_Entrevista | Toni Negri & Michael Hardt
13-03-06_Entrevista | J. G. Ballard
12-03-06_Nueva estrategia hiperpolítica
04-03-06_Methamphetamine Propaganda
27-09-07_ Francis Fukuyama: The acceptable face of the neo-cons?
01-03-06_Europe vs. Radical Islam
25-02-06_El sí de las niñas
03-08-07_ La postguerra de los movimientos
12-02-06_Derrick De Kerckhove: «soy global y ustedes también»
11-02-06_Intelligence, Policy,and the War in Iraq
07-02-06_El arte de los anfitriones
07-02-06_Las dos fotografías de Susan Sontag
03-02-06_¿Qué España?
03-02-06_Same old song
29-01-06_Déclassement : quand l'ascenseur social descend
29-01-06_Warriors and wusses
23-01-06_Carta a América
20-01-06_Fog of Secrecy
20-01-06_The Impeachment of George W. Bush
13-01-06_Why Drunks Make Better Politicians
06-01-06_What's in a hat?
06-01-06_Abramoff won't go down alone
17-12-05_In Speech, Bush Says He Ordered Domestic Spying
08-12-05_Discurso íntegro de Harold Pinter de aceptación del Nobel de Literatura
25-11-05_The political as a truth procedure
12-11-05_Variaciones del discurso sobre la integración
07-11-05_NO al cierre de la Sala Montcada de Barcelona
28-10-05_Prosecutor to Speak Soon; No Indictment for Rove Today
15-10-05_La Creación, según Bush
08-10-05_Creative Commons pide ayuda
20-09-05_¡BIENVENIDO A EE.UU.!
08-06-05_Arte, Instituciones y Democracia
23-07-07_ La Cultura del Mal



Regístrate y disfruta de utilidades de administración y gestión de los contenidos de e-limbo*
Recibe las novedades en tu correo electronico.
El futuro está escrito en las estrellas... Horóscopo creado por J.G. Ballard y dedicado a todos vosotros.
Aplicaciones y herramientas necesarias para navegar y utilizar los contenidos del limbo electrónico e internet (www).
Artículos de e-limbo* en formato PDF preparados para viajar y aportar información allá donde estés. (y seguir salvando árboles)

_e-limbo * apoya



Mais uma edição do podcast Música Livre para o Archivo Vivo, do Centro Cultural da Espanha/AECID. ...
Ante preguntas de oyentes y amigos, puedo responder ahora que Vía Límite continuará en Radio ...
SORPRESA¡!¡! An unreleased version of Talking Heads' "Psycho Killer" with Arthur Russell on cello
Optimizado: Firefox, Safari, Mozilla, Netscape, Konqueror, Explorer. Resolución óptima: 1024x768
ISSN: 1885-5229    Aviso Legal e-limbo.org*